“Trump has said the death toll ‘could have been’ 2 million. And the Imperial College put out higher numbers. First question: If it comes out at 60k or 100k–200k, how could people have been so wrong? Or if it comes out higher, how could people be so wrong? The answer? This is exactly how exponential math works. If 1 person infects 2.3 people on average, after 10 cycles 4,100 are infected. But if one person infects only 1.3 people on average, only 14 people are infected.” Andy Slavitt: Making Sense of the Various Coronavirus Death Toll Projections.

+ David Wallace-Wells: The Best-Case Scenario for Coronavirus Is That It’s Way More Infectious Than We Think.