Dirty Pool

“This was a discovery war. Both sides treated it as a live rehearsal, learning the things you can only learn by fighting: what the missiles and drones can really do, where the air defenses hold and where they leak, how the next one might be fought. More conflicts are coming, soon enough, and everyone fought this one with that in mind. The problem is the asymmetry in what was learned. We learned tactics, which depreciate. The other side learned something strategic, which compounds. They learned that the West is not built for discomfort. One oil shock and a single election cycle’s worth of patience, and the most powerful military coalition on earth stood down a regime it had on the ropes. And consider who the opponent was. Iran was close to the weakest adversary we could have faced: isolated, under sanctions for decades, its air defenses degraded, no nuclear weapon yet in hand, no major power fighting at its side, and a regime its own people had risen against months earlier. The conditions will never be this favorable again. If this is what our resolve looks like against Iran, the question every capital is now asking is the obvious one. What does it look like against China, with a peer military, an integrated economy we cannot simply sanction, and the patience of a state that thinks in decades?” Dror Berman with a very interesting look at what we, and the world, just learned. A Discovery War, Not a Peace Deal.

+ “It reflected not only the errors of an unusually feckless administration, but the accumulation of poor decisions and inadequate or misdirected investments by the Pentagon and Congress, civilian and military leaders alike. It was caused only partly by the distractions of Afghanistan and Iraq, but resulted even more from decades of loose thinking and self-serving assumptions about the changing character of war.” Eliot A. Cohen in The Atlantic (Gift Article): War and Consequences.

“The latest developments leave the first major piece of housing legislation to reach the president’s desk since the financial crisis in limbo after it passed Congress by wide margins and, for now, deny Trump and congressional Republicans a key affordability-related win ahead of November’s midterm elections.” Trump abruptly halts housing affordability legislation, holds bill hostage in effort to pass voter ID law. (Even legislation that is good for the GOP isn’t as important to the administration as legislation that can unfairly tilt the election.)

+ Very likely related: Federal judge bars Trump from implementing proof of citizenship requirement to vote.

“Emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from human activity are driving the planet’s long-term increase in temperatures, which is helping hot spells reach ever-greater extremes of severity and duration. But local factors determine how all that excess heat is distributed around the world, and why temperatures are rising faster in some places than others.” NYT (Gift Article): Why Europe Is the Fastest-Warming Continent.

+ And when we say warming, we mean warming. On Wednesday, at least 94 million people in Europe were expected to experience temperatures above 95°F. It’s effing June.

Apocalypse, Now: “Five years into the civil war, far from the reach of international aid groups, we found a heartland that felt lost in an apocalypse. From the skies above dusty villages and patchworks of farmland plowed by emaciated oxen, the Myanmar military’s instruments of death killed with chaotic impunity. In its isolation, Anyar suffers from crippling shortages, too, of weapons, guerrillas and, increasingly, hope.” Hannah Beech and Daniel Berehulak with some incredible, and incredibly depressing, reporting as we reach year five of Myanmar’s civil war. NYT (Gift Article): The War Forgotten by the World Is an Apocalypse Now.

+ Give it Arrest: “A growing number of conservative leaders are starting to argue that the only way to stop women from ending their pregnancies could be to arrest them.”

+ Pay to Play: WSJ (Gift Article): How a $45 Million Donation Brought Larry Ellison Deeper Into Trump’s Circle. (I mean, the explanation is right there in the headline…)

+ On a Wing and a Mayor: “All the winning candidates share Mr. Mamdani’s progressive economic platform, and they each ran campaigns that focused intently on ending American support for Israel, a sign of how far public opinion has shifted on the issue, even in New York.” Mamdani Emerges as Kingmaker, Pushing His Slate to a Primary Sweep.

+ Bet Offensive: Still don’t believe me when I keep saying that prediction market apps are a detriment to society? Maybe this will convince you. Mark Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Create a Prediction Markets App.

+ Reversing History: “The welcome bags include a report commissioned by Mr. Trump during his first term that downplays the role of slavery in the country’s founding, and a children’s book accusing South Africa’s government of ‘favoring the Black population.'” NYT (Gift Article): A Look Inside the Welcome Bags Planned for White South African Refugees.

+ Tall Order: What Messi lacks in height, he more than makes up for in statue height. “In Cutral Col, a remote town in Patagonia, Messi was honored with (literally) the largest monument to his greatness, yet. Local artists unveiled an 85-foot statue of the soccer legend.” (We all know there’s only one foot that matters…)

Basic Training Meets Basic Science: “The outbreak flared just two months after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth abandoned a decades-long requirement for flu shots.” Military branches restore flu shot requirement after virus swept through base.