Trumping the Global Economy
Welcome to what it feels like to be part of a Trump business. After years of relatively solid and stable stock market gains under Biden, this little piggy went to market and sent stock symbols crashing. In the course of one Rose Garden press conference (which may be the last time the word rose is associated with the US economy for a while), Gordon Wrecko turned the Dow from an IPO market to a Repo market; as global investors traded securities for insecurities. The first sign that today’s market mayhem would be bad was when I called my broker and his outgoing message was just him moaning over a Prince remix, “Tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1929.” Liberation Day seemed more like ad-liberation day, as Trump made up a series of causes and potential outcomes to justify across the world tariffs that turned bullish to bullsh-t. And with that, The werewolf of Wall Street had cornered the market.
+ The latest from CNN: Stocks in major decline as Trump’s tariffs spark global trade war.
+ WSJ (Gift Article): The Day Trump’s Tariffs Shook Wall Street and Corporate America. “As I looked around, I sensed a feeling of nausea.” (Sounds like every day for a news curator.) It’s worth noting that the pain is being felt, in some cases especially acutely, by companies that deployed the strategy of making nice with the new president.
+ Bloomberg (Gift Article): Trump’s Tariffs Send Deliberate Shock to Heart of Global Economy. (One that will be felt as a tax for average consumers.)
+ “Gone are appeals to a larger purpose, mutual agreements or shared values. In this new order, the strongest powers determine the rules and enforce them through intimidation and bare-knuckled power.” NYT (Gift Article): Trump’s Trade War Risks Forfeiting America’s Economic Primacy.
+ “There will certainly be higher costs for American consumers and businesses. Tariffs are taxes … The cost in lost American influence will be considerable. Mr. Trump thinks the lure of the U.S. market and American military power are enough to bend countries to his will. But soft power also matters, and that includes being able to trust America’s word as a reliable ally and trading partner.” WSJ Editorial Board: Trump’s New Protectionist Age.
+ The investor class is being hit hard. But who will these tariffs hit the hardest? “A tariff is what we call a regressive tax because it pinches families at the bottom more than it does families at the top.”
+ NYT (Gift Article): Why Did Trump Spare Russia From New Tariffs?
+ While you’d probably be willing to bet a few rubles on the answer to that question, it’s a lot harder to answer this one. Why did we put tariffs on an island inhabited by penguins? Penguins, seals and other wildlife only inhabitants of 2 islands hit with Trump tariffs. And, Lesotho is going to stop getting over on us, once and for all. How jeans and diamonds pushed Lesotho to the top of Trump’s tariffs list.
+ How were some of these choices made? Critics suspect Trump’s weird tariff math came from chatbots. (I almost used a chatbot to write this edition until I realized words are the only thing I’m not at a loss for today.)
+ NextDraft will be off on tomorrow in observance of Opening Day.
It’s Not the Economy, Stupid
What’s the point of these tariffs if just about every economist shares the same reaction as your portfolio? A down market and a slammed economy aren’t exactly political winners. Well, consider that the moves are less about economics and more about power. Senator Chris Murphy explains: “Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief … Now, one by one, every industry or company will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief.”
+ MoJo: Trump’s Tariffs Give Him a New Way to Dole Out Reward and Punishment. “If Trump is willing to hurt the economy, he must be getting something he wants even more in return. That thing is power.”
+ Of course, that power can only be taken with the acquiescence of Congress. Josh Marshall: “Presidents have no power over tariffs. Full stop. It’s not like war powers or pardons. Trump can only do this because Congress gave Presidents this power, as I explained in the a post yesterday. Congress can take it back at any moment.” (Will they? You might be better off betting on stocks.)
Romeo and Ethernet
“To this day, nobody can say when exactly Sewell Setzer forgot or suppressed the fact that there would be nobody waiting for him in the place he wanted to go. That the post-headshot world only existed in his telephone and on some tech company’s servers. And perhaps in his dreams. That his girlfriend, who had been imploring him for months to love only her, to come to her, to have eyes for no one else – that this girlfriend, who had promised to carry his children, was just a machine.” A modern tragedy from Frauke Hunfeld in Spiegel: A Deadly Love Affair with a Chatbot. “Sewell Setzer was a happy child – before he fell in love with a chatbot and took his own life at 14. His mother has now filed a lawsuit against the most powerful company in the world.”
Cold Hearted
“The Trump administration has abruptly laid off the entire staff running a $4.1 billion program to help low-income households across the United States pay their heating and cooling bills … The layoffs were part of a broader purge on Monday of approximately 10,000 employees from the Department of Health and Human Services, as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. moved to drastically reorganize the agency.” NYT (Gift Article): Entire Staff Is Fired at Office That Helps Poorer Americans Pay for Heating.
+ NYT (Gift Article): Easter Eggs Are So Expensive Americans Are Dyeing Potatoes.
+ Meanwhile, America’s wealthiest shoppers are driving more spending than they have in decades.
Extra, Extra
DEI Hard: “School and state officials are required to sign a certification letter attached to the memo and return it to the department within 10 days, proving that they are complying with the directive.” Education Dept. warns schools: Eliminate DEI programs or lose funding.
+ Chat Rot: “The probe, announced on Thursday, follows a bipartisan request from the Senate armed services committee after allegations emerged that highly precise – and most likely classified – intelligence about impending US airstrikes in Yemen, including strike timing and aircraft models, had been shared in a Signal group chat that included a journalist.” Pentagon watchdog to investigate Pete Hegseth over Signal war-planning chat leak. Related: Waltz’s team set up at least 20 Signal group chats for crises across the world.
+ Out With the Good: WSJ (Gift Article): White House Fires Several Members of Trump’s National Security Council. “Several National Security Council staffers were fired this week, people familiar with the matter said, as right-wing conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer alleged to President Trump that some members of his administration weren’t aligned with his priorities.” Axios: What to know about Laura Loomer, Trump’s conspiracy theorist ally. (Even his other conspiracy theorist allies don’t like her.)
+ Learning Aid: “There’s historical precedent for how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is handling his ascension to high office. It’s an episode that didn’t end well. Thabo Mbeki, who succeeded Nelson Mandela as president of South Africa and ruled in his shadow for nine years, was the world’s most powerful AIDS denier. As president, he could do far more than spout long-debunked theories about HIV not causing AIDS. He appointed a health minister who insisted that the cure was garlic, lemons, beets and beer. And he forbade public hospitals to provide the antiviral drugs that were saving lives in other African countries. Both Mbeki and his people paid a price. In 2008, he was ousted in a party power struggle — after his intransigence had killed an estimated 365,000 South Africans, including 35,000 newborns who would have lived if their HIV-positive mothers had been given just a few doses of a drug to prevent mother-child transmission, according to a Harvard study.” Donald McNeil in WaPo: RFK Jr. mimics AIDS denier Thabo Mbeki.
+ Laws in Practice: “Doctors who practice medicine in states with abortion bans have described in a new study how three of their pregnant patients died, but probably could have been saved had they been able to receive abortion care.”
+ Here Comes the New Boss: Enough with the bad news! “Bruce Springsteen is opening his vault — and unleashing seven ‘lost’ LPs. On June 27, Springsteen will release ‘Tracks II: The Lost Albums,’ a collection of 83 songs on seven CDs (or nine vinyl LPs), of which 74 have never been officially released in any form.”
+ Shingle Minded: Study finds strongest evidence yet that shingles vaccine helps cut dementia risk.
Bottom of the News
“The preschooler, Belle Thomas, and her 1-year-old brother, Preston, are standing still, looking straight into the camera lens and smiling. It’s picture-perfect, and the photographer is ready. Click. Just then, a 6-foot-1, two-term former president of the United States strides into the frame. In a few seconds, the photo shoot is over, and the photos are no longer of the siblings alone.” A Pristine Family Photo. Then Barack Obama Strolls By. (Read quickly. They’ll probably put a tariff on Obama photos soon.)
+ NextDraft will be off on tomorrow in observance of Opening Day.
