Crime Numbers, Trump's Friendly Backfire
“I remember literally running into my husband’s office and saying, ‘Come look at this email, I think I’m being punked.'” That was how UC Irvine criminology professor Charis E. Kubrin reacted after learning that she had been nominated for the Stockholm Prize, the highest honor in her field. And you can’t really blame her. For years, she has been punked, doubted, dismissed, and attacked over her research. Why? Because it’s research that flies in the face of what most Americans believe — their certainty based on longstanding, preconceived notions, bolstered nonstop by the assurances of one of the world’s most prolific liars, combined with what’s become America’s unofficial favorite pastime: Doing your own research. Research and science being doubted and flouted is hardly unique in today’s America, but in Kubrin’s case, her findings strike at the heart of a political movement and at the core of a set of policies that are reshaping America’s streets (and values). “Kubrin was being recognized for rigorous research that demonstrated in place after place, decade after decade, that immigration to the U.S. does not cause crime to go up; it may even push it down.” When Kubrin won her award, Anne Ramberg, who chairs the Stockholm Prize in Criminology Foundation, explained: “When policymaking becomes driven by populism rather than by evidence, society as a whole stands to suffer.” In other words, Don’t Study Crime, If You Won’t Take the Time. A UC professor won criminology’s highest honor. Americans still don’t believe her research (Alt link). “The distance between what is empirically known and what is deeply believed has tormented scholars since before Galileo. But the schism has rarely felt so impassable in American culture.” (Even today, I’m sure there are plenty of Americans who don’t believe that the earth orbits the sun. They think it orbits Donald Trump.)
Friendly (Back)Fire
“Donald Trump does not think strategically. Nor does he think historically, geographically, or even rationally. He does not connect actions he takes on one day to events that occur weeks later. He does not think about how his behavior in one place will change the behavior of other people in other places. He does not consider the wider implications of his decisions. He does not take responsibility when these decisions go wrong. Instead, he acts on whim and impulse, and when he changes his mind—when he feels new whims and new impulses—he simply lies about whatever he said or did before.” Anne Applebaum has been right about Trump since the beginning and she sums him up pretty well in this lede. And, like it or not, that strategy has worked out for Trump over the years. But now he’s in a war he hasn’t been able to fully explain and asking for, then not asking for, then demanding, then saying he doesn’t need the assistance of allies that he has maligned, bullied, embarrassed, and disregarded for years. And, “this week, something broke. Maybe Trump does not understand the link between the past and the present, but other people do.” The Atlantic (Gift Article): Everyone but Trump Understands What He’s Done.
+ Unlike Trump, Bibi has been preparing for this moment for years, and has a defined strategy. Whether or not it will work (or whether or not Trump will remain on board with it) is another question. Netanyahu Hopes Strikes on Iran Will Lead to Uprising and Regime Change.
+ Netanyahu’s strategy is based in part on removing layer after layer of the leadership of the Iranian regime. (Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmaeil Khatib, was killed on Wednesday). Israel and the US have also been targeting Iran’s energy sites, threatening the regime, but also global energy supplies.
+ Russia has seen sanctions drop and oil sales surge. It’s a pretty nice reward for a country that’s been attacking a US ally for years and is currently aiding Iran in its fight against the US. WSJ (Gift Article): Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran.
Chavez Ravine
“He locked the door, as he always did when he called her, and told her how lonely he had been. He brought her onto the yoga mat that he often used in his office for meditation, kissed her and pulled her pants down. ‘Don’t tell anyone,’ he told her afterward. ‘They’d get jealous.’ The man, Cesar Chavez, one of the most revered figures in the Latino civil rights movement, was 45. She was 13. Ms. Murguia said she was summoned for sexual encounters with him dozens of times over the next four years.” NYT (Gift Article) with a brutal report. Cesar Chavez, a Civil Rights Icon, Is Accused of Abusing Girls for Years.
But They Didn’t Inhale
Smoking rates recently dropped below 10% for the first time since we got into the habit. That’s among Americans. American humans, to be more precise. Cigarette use has actually increased among birds. “Darwin’s finches in the Galápagos, house finches in Mexico and song thrushes in New Zealand have all developed a curious habit: They put cigarette butts in their nests. Some songbirds in Britain are even nesting in outdoor ashtrays.” NYT (Gift Article): Why Some Birds Seem to Be Developing a Cigarette Habit. “Cigarette butts contain about 4,000 chemical compounds, including nicotine, arsenic, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and heavy metals. These compounds could ward off pests that harm birds and their offspring.”
Extra, Extra
Unmanned v Unprepared? “With Operation Epic Fury well into its third week, there are two increasingly urgent questions: how long U.S. defense systems can continue to hold off such attacks — not just in Iraq, but throughout the Middle East — and whether the U.S. underestimated the threat of Iran’s drones in the first place.” (I actually doubt that the military underestimated Iran’s drone program. But I wonder if we’re all underestimating the extent to which cheap drones, AI, and other tech are altering the battlefield and eroding some of the advantages held by the world’s military powers.) Cheap drones are reshaping modern warfare — and catching the U.S. off guard. In Ukraine, they know the power of Iranian-made drones all too well. Ukraine strings nets over cities as killer drones turn streets into war zones.
+ Mark Wanes: “Senator Markwayne Mullin, President Trump’s often pugilistic pick to lead the department, struck a milder tone at his confirmation hearing on Wednesday.” Wow, I’ve never heard of nominees changing their tune during confirmation hearings. “Mullin apologized for his comments about the shooting of Alex Pretti. He declined, however, to apologize for his comments about the shooting of Renee Good, saying that the officer had to make a split-second decision.” Here’s the latest from NYT.
+ Opposite World, Continued: Trump’s tariffs are hurting American manufacturers instead of helping them. And, Trump Promised the ‘World’s Lowest’ Drug Prices. We Checked the Numbers. (It’s getting really hard to take this guy at his word.)
+ This May Be of Interest: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, keeps 1 cut in play this year as uncertainty mounts. (One more thing for the market to be unhappy about…)
+ Stomping Stamps: “If it continues business as usual, the U.S. Postal Service is on track to run out of cash for paying its workers and vendors in about a year and may have to stop deliveries.” This probably doesn’t help. Amazon reportedly plans to slash its USPS delivery volumes by at least two-thirds. (Why would Amazon need the USPS? At this point, it won’t be long before they build a distribution center in your driveway…)
+ All Is Not Well: “Attia also went on to become one of the most trusted wellness influencers, with 1 million YouTube subscribers, 1.6 million followers on Instagram and 100 million downloads of his podcast.” I’m always dubious of the phrase, trusted wellness influencer, but Attia was as big as it gets. And then, because of his Epstein connection, it all came crashing down. Bloomberg (Gift Article): The Rise and Fall of Peter Attia’s Longevity Empire. (Maybe he should have studied career longevity…)
+ If Not Now, Ven? “Venezuela reigns supreme, the U.S. once again fell short by a run, and the global vibes of the sport were on full display.” The Winners and Losers of the 2026 World Baseball Classic. “Much like 2023, the most lasting takeaway won’t be that the Americans lost, but that this tournament has become appointment viewing. For two weeks every three years, the sport sheds its leisurely pace and turns into a high-stakes and emotionally charged spectacle rivaled only by October in intensity.” (Even as a fan, I was nowhere near ready for this level of baseball in March.)
Bottom of the News
“If people were talking about the town and our policies, that would be one thing. But all they’re interested in is our names.” That must be frustrating. But in fairness, this is a local election between Hittler and Zielinski.
+ Texting a random stranger better for loneliness than talking to a chatbot. (Funny, I’ve been typing STOP to random strangers who send me texts for years, and I don’t feel less lonely…)
