Yield of Reams

“There have been five inversions of the 2-year and 10-year yields since 1978 and all were precursors to a recession, but there is a significant lag, according to data from Credit Suisse. A recession occurred, on average, 22 months after the inversion.” (Or why you heard so much screaming when people checked their portfolios this morning.) CNBC: Main yield curve inverts as 2-year yield tops 10-year rate, triggering recession warning.

+ Bloomberg: “If you’re wondering what a yield curve is and why there’s so much fretting on both sides of the Atlantic over its changing shape, you’re not alone. This year, Google searches for ‘yield curve inversion’ shot up to their highest level ever. Here’s what the fuss is about.” The Yield Curve Is Inverted! Remind Me Why I Care. (It’s amazing that we’ve seen a triple-double and an inverted yield curve in the same week…)

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