Follow the (Lost) Money

Even the losers get lucky sometimes. But luckily for betting apps and prediction markets, not very often. “It’s true that millions of people use them only occasionally, and only to have a bit of fun. But these people are of modest value to the companies. The least active two-thirds of licensed sportsbook gamblers account for just 2.7% of estimated revenue, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek analysis of almost 140,000 bettors across 29 states in 2024 and ’25. The more lucrative bettors are the small but growing cohort of gamblers exhibiting likely problem behavior. A classic symptom would be topping off their sportsbook account hundreds of times a year. Without these people, digital sportsbooks could lose about 60% of their revenue. That’s unlikely to happen: Of the people who place deposits into sportsbooks monthly, 1 in 5 will eventually do so daily, our analysis found.” Bloomberg (Gift Article): The Spiral.