The Don in China
Maybe the best way to describe Team Trump’s visit to China is by paraphrasing Michael Corleone’s famous Godfather quote. It’s not political, Sonny. It’s strictly business. The group photo of the U.S. delegation that stood at attention at the Great Hall of the People features a whole lot of CEOs looking to increase revenues from China, and not a whole lot of people, if any, with Chinese diplomatic expertise. Having business leaders negotiate deals may not provide the best possible geopolitical outcomes, but most would agree that it beats having a summit in which Trump is given free rein, and an open mic, to negotiate more complex issues. As Vivian Salama and Jonathan Lemire explain in The Atlantic (Gift Article), “the major goal of Trump and Xi’s meeting is to do no harm.” The Hippocratic Summit. “The delegation that arrived with President Trump in Beijing last night looked less like the diplomatic corps of a superpower and more like a Fortune 500 board meeting. On Air Force One were Elon Musk, Tim Cook (‘Tim Apple,’ as the president calls him), and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Joining in Beijing were honchos from Wall Street and aerospace firms. The message was impossible to miss: This trip, billed as a high-stakes summit between the leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations, is about money first and geopolitics second—with differences in ideology trailing far behind.” While the summit was mostly friendly, no doubt, the experts on both sides were thinking of another Corleone quote: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
+ While the US delegation was all about business, Xi was definitely focused on one very big political issue. China’s leader warns Trump that differences over Taiwan could lead to a clash. “Xi warned the U.S. ‘must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question … If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability … Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.” While Marco Rubio declared that US policy on Taiwan is “unchanged,” many were concerned that Trump would weaken America’s stand on Taiwan in exchange for China’s help getting him out of the Iran mess (which has resulted in Chinese gains). The Taiwan conflict is also a story about business. As much as the Strait of Hormuz has impacted the global economy, “these hiccups are nothing compared to the effects of a serious disruption to the flow of chips from Taiwan.” Rest of World: Taiwan’s chips power the global economy. China holds the leverage.
+ “‘The idea is that when an established, great power is met with a rising power, conflict between the two is certainly likely if not inevitable,’ said Daniel Sutton, a classicist at the University of Cambridge who studies Thucydides, on Thursday. In Mr. Xi’s version of the analogy, an emboldened China is the Athens to an American Sparta.” Xi Warned of the ‘Thucydides Trap.’ What Is It? (There’s about as much chance that Xi’s guest of honor understood that reference as there is that the rest of us will come up with a definition for Covfefe.)
