Obliteration Clarification

“U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter.” Reuters: US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program, sources say.

+ The way war is changing could be a bigger story than this particular war. NYT (Gift Article): Operation Epic Fury, Meet Operation Colossal Blunder. “There are now only two outcomes to the conflict: either the kind of wholesale destruction of Iran that Mr. Trump posited, or a settlement that will leave the government intact and empowered, and a blustering American president humiliated. The first option is increasingly remote. By publicly threatening the commission of war crimes on an enormous scale, Mr. Trump has given both his domestic and foreign opponents time to marshal resistance. As for the latter and more likely outcome, this was predictable, if only the president and his administration had bothered to take note of a new feature of modern warfare, a feature that can be boiled down to a single word: drones.”

+ Hegseth says the ceasefire is holding, despite fighting in the Strait, and explained that the US has established a “powerful red, white and blue dome” across the Strait of Hormuz as a “gift to the rest of the world.” (Hey World, you’re welcome!) Meanwhile, Trump promises he’s been making “tremendous deals.” Here’s the latest from BBC, NBC, and The Guardian.