Strait Flush

The Strait of Hormuz seems to be open. The US blockade remains in place until a final deal is reached. Iran has agreed to never close the Strait again. And the US and Iran will work together to collect the country’s enriched uranium, which will then be brought to the US. Does that all sound too good to be true? Can we say with a strait face that we’re getting the strait skinny from a source not exactly known for being a strait shooter? It may take a little while to be sure (and months to hammer out a complete deal). And we’re getting some very different quotes about the negotiations from Iranian officials. As BBC reports: “The president’s optimism may end up well-founded. But if that turns out not to be the case, it wouldn’t be the first time his words have moved ahead of the reality on the ground.” (If his words meet reality, does that mean we’ve reached the singularity?) But for now, the market definitely wants to believe. Oil prices are down, stocks are up, and the ceasefire is holding. Here’s the latest from BBC, NBC, and The Guardian.

+ The war has cost the US lives, money, and international trust and status. So what will we get in exchange for that? Ultimately, for those dealing with reality on a regular basis, the outcome will be measured against what we already had. A few weeks ago, we had an open strait not being controlled by Iran. And a few years ago, we had a working nuclear agreement that was being constantly verified by international inspectors. Trump famously tore up the agreement that included this: “Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop, or acquire any nuclear weapons.” (Maybe we should have fought this war with a roll of Scotch Tape.)