Taco Dependency
The rest of the world is playing checkers. Trump is playing fortnight. The president backed down from his threat to wipe out a civilization and announced a ceasefire and peace-talk process that would take place over his favorite period of time: two weeks. The news had many shouting Trump’s second-term nickname: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Call me pro TACO. I have been in favor of most de-escalations since Trump de-escalated down the Trump Tower escalator and into the White House. The public markets seem to be sharing in my sigh of relief. If this precarious ceasefire holds, the big question will be whether Trump achieved anything by escalating in the first place. David Sanger in the NYT (Gift Article): “Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession. But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war. It leaves a theocratic government, backed by the vicious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of a cowed population that has been pummeled by missiles and bombs, and finds itself still under the thumb of a familiar regime, even if under new management. It leaves Iran’s nuclear stockpile in place, including the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade material that was, in theory, the casus belli of this war.”
+ How Trump went from threatening Iran’s annihilation to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire in a day. Well, it sure wasn’t because of any major concessions made by Iran. Iran Releases 10 Points It Says Are Basis for Cease-fire Talks. “Iran released its version of the proposal the morning after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire, and calls for American troops to leave the region, reasserts Iran’s control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and maintains Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.” (Iran is suggesting that they will charge $2 million per vessel that travels through the Strait.) Hegseth said Iran “begged” for a ceasefire, but these deal points sure don’t sound like total surrender. (FWIW, Trump called this ten point plan fraudulent and explained he is dealing with another set of points: “These are the POINTS that are the basis on which we agreed to a CEASEFIRE. It is something that is reasonable, and can easily be dispensed with.”)
+ Who could have predicted things would play out like this? Lots of people, including many inside the administration. And, as is always the case when things don’t go well, they’re more than happy to leak their opinions. “When Mr. Trump joined the meeting, Mr. Ratcliffe briefed him on the assessment. The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: ‘farcical.’ John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, cautioned against considering regime change an achievable objective in a Situation Room meeting the next day. At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in. ‘In other words, it’s bullshit,’ he said.” NYT (Gift Article): How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran.
+ Bibi, not ceasing: At least 254 killed after Israel hits Lebanon with massive wave of airstrikes.
+ For now, the Strait traffic is halted, Iran is still apparently attacking its neighbors, and the warring parties are disagreeing about what they agreed to ahead of the ceasefire. Here’s the latest from the NYT, NBC, and The Guardian.
