Breaking Ground

“Donald Trump announced this week that the United States and Iran had made significant progress in negotiations, and he was allowing five days to reach a deal. Tehran denied that it was talking with Washington at all. This is not, in any meaningful sense, a negotiation: It is a countdown. The timing is not coincidental. Thousands of Marines and much of the 1st Brigade of the 82nd Airborne are en route to the Middle East. Trump may intend the talks to act as cover for an escalation decision already made. Even if he doesn’t, the structural reality is the same: When the deadline expires, he will be close to having significant ground-combat capability in the region and a collapsing diplomatic process to justify using it.” Thomas Wright in The Atlantic (Gift Article): The Countdown to a Ground War.

+ Or, maybe not? “[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran … Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on.” Inside the White House divide on Iran.

+ “Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the United States did not need to deploy ground troops to succeed in the war in Iran, which he said would end within weeks rather than months, even as Iran moved to assert its control over the critical Strait of Hormuz.” But does anyone believe Rubio is the decider on any of this stuff? Just read this craziness. “Mr. Rubio told reporters in Paris that the United States had not received a formal response from Iran to President Trump’s 15-point plan for ending the war. Mr. Trump has said that peace talks are underway and going well, but Iranian officials have said that contacts between the two countries have been minimal and mostly indirect, not yet amounting to real negotiations.” Here’s the latest from the NYT.