The Bull—- Market
It’s too bad the March Madness moniker is already taken, because there aren’t a lot of better ways to describe the latest mad-making weekend in geopolitics. In a social media post, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or he’d start bombing power plants. Iran issued counter-threats about hitting other power and desalination plants in the region. By Monday morning, Trump had backed off his original ultimatum, saying that the highly inexperienced and highly conflicted team of Kushner and Witkoff had some productive talks with Iranian leadership. Iran went so far, we’re told, as to agree not to have a nuclear weapon. The Iranian side insists that no such talks took place, and given Trump’s track record with honesty (including when it comes to this war), it’s hard to imagine he’s the one telling the truth (even when being measured against what’s left of one of the world’s most awful and perennially mendacious regimes). To summarize, an unstable leader leading an optional war made threats via social media and then rescinded them based on what appears to be imaginary talks and then lied about the whole thing, leaving our strategy unclear, our goals still a mystery, and a key energy route still closed. And the market responded to this mind-boggling instability (and what looks a lot like its own manipulation) by … soaring. Yes, the same market we’ve long depended on to be an unemotional measure of corporate health and future earnings, dependent on stable leadership and the rule of law, seems to be going as insane as the rest of us. We’re talking crazy money, here. Before we follow the money, shouldn’t we consider who the money is following? It’s not like investors aren’t aware that the person whose words are dramatically moving the market is known for constant lying. But they’re still buying his BS. Trump has given new meaning to the phrase, bull market. Don’t get me wrong. My portfolio is as relieved as yours. But it sure seems like the market is in denial about what’s going on in American politics. Or maybe, like the rest of us, the market was happily distracted while tracking college basketball brackets over the weekend — at least there, we’re supposed to have madness.
