Fluid Dynamics
The situation in Iran and the region is fluid. Two fluids in particular might drive the course and duration of the war. You can probably guess the first one. WSJ (Gift Article): Strait of Hormuz: The Oil Bottleneck Threatening the Global Economy. But there’s another fluid that could also be at risk. Javier Blas in Bloomberg (Gift Article): The Iran War’s Most Precious Commodity Isn’t Oil. “The CIA calls it the ‘strategic commodity’ of the Middle East. But it’s not referring to oil or natural gas. What the American spy agency has in mind is far more prosaic: drinking water. Don’t underestimate it, though, because if military hostilities continue to escalate, water could become the geopolitical commodity that decides the war between the US and Iran.”
+ “The president specializes in exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents; having watched Israel decimate Iran’s proxy armies and air defenses over the past few years, he sought to capitalize on the regime’s moment of maximum vulnerability. Other countries—most notably Israel and Saudi Arabia—potentially stand to benefit from Trump’s war. But the decision to start it was his alone, and no amount of spin from his surrogates should obscure this fact.” Yair Rosenberg in The Atlantic (Gift Article): The Real Reason Trump Went to War. (I don’t pretend to be able to understand the inner workings of Trump’s mind. But there’s no doubt that the 12-day war showed the region and the world how weak and vulnerable Iran is. Whether this invasion was the best way to respond to that weakness remains to be seen.)
+ The U.S. has been remarkably effective at blocking attacks from Iran. But doing so, at this point, requires the use of expensive munitions to block cheaper ones. That could be a factor as this war plays out. And it is very likely on the minds of America’s stronger and more dangerous adversaries. The Dangerous Munitions Mismatch Between America and Iran.
+ “The U.S. has torpedoed an Iranian ship in international waters in the Indian Ocean, among 20 vessels the U.S. military says it has struck.” And bigger strikes may still be coming. According to Hegseth, America and Israel would soon be able to deliver “death and destruction all day long.” (Which is exactly how you don’t want your secretary of defense to talk.) Meanwhile, “NATO air defenses had shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran that had been heading toward Turkish airspace.” Here’s the latest from NBC, ABC, and NYT.
