FIFA Fo Fum
In the moments that followed the bombing of sites in Venezuela and the rapid capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro, social media was flooded with explanations of why the Trump administration took this action and what it hopes to get out of it. This certitude reached a new level of Dunning-Kruger hubris on a platform where that seemed impossible. Even days after the action, Democratic members of the Gang of Eight had received no briefings from the administration. The inter-government processes that usually precede such decisions have been all but removed from the Trump administration, and even the Caracas Caucus, the small group of as seen on TV officials, haven’t expressed identical explanations for the attack or the hoped-for outcome. After talking to a few experts I know and doing a pretty thorough lit review on the topic, here’s what I’m sure of so far: Maduro is a bad guy who was not democratically elected, the military effort to remove him went about as well as it could have, and no one is quite sure how the ramifications of this move will play out in the region or across the globe. Oh, and one more thing: I fear the legitimacy of the FIFA Peace Prize has been called into question.
Given the lack of actual drug trafficking from Venezuela to the US (and the recent pardon of “a former Honduran president who’d been convicted of trafficking narcotics to the United States”), we can be reasonably sure this wasn’t about drugs. And no one in the administration is even pretending it’s about democracy. Of course, it’s a lot about oil, but it’s unclear whether that even makes much sense in the short term. This lede from Vox (Gift Article) sums things up pretty well. “Over the weekend, the United States invaded Venezuela, captured its leader, and then declared itself to be in charge of South America’s fifth-largest country. And no one — not even the US government — seems entirely sure why.” (As much as it pains me to report this, I guess there’s one more thing I’m relatively sure of: 2026 is going to be even crazier than 2025. Happy New Year!)
+ “None of this is logical, but it isn’t meant to be: Like the Party in 1984, the would-be dominators of the Western Hemisphere seem to feel no need for logic. If might makes right, if the U.S. gets to do what it wants using any tools it wants in its own sphere, then there is no need for transparency, democracy, or legitimacy. The concerns of ordinary people who live in smaller nations don’t need to be taken into account, because they will not be granted any agency.” Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic (Gift Article): Trump’s ‘American Dominance’ May Leave Us With Nothing.
+ “Truman, Reagan, and Monroe wouldn’t approve of the language, but a doctrine is a doctrine, even if it’s only five words long.” The F-ck-Around-and-Find-Out Presidency.
+ “If Trump oversees Venezuela’s transition to a transparent democracy that can attract international investment, this could provide needed resources to rebuild the country and help ease energy prices over the long run. If, however, he seeks to impose a mercantilist model in pursuit of short-term financial gain, he will undermine the global energy market on which U.S. security depends.” Jason Bordoff in Foreign Policy (Gift Article): Why ‘Taking’ Venezuela’s Oil Hurts U.S. Energy Security.
+ Following the money is a lot easier when it leaves behind oil skid marks. Venezuela raid enriches MAGA billionaire.
+ “Spy drones were part of how the CIA monitored Maduro, but after his capture on Saturday the agency also surprisingly briefed it had a human source inside the Venezuelan government.” Months in planning, over in two and a half hours: how the US snatched Maduro.
+ WaPo: Rubio takes on most challenging role yet: Viceroy of Venezuela. (Rubio has now taken more jobs than AI…)
+ Military acts are supposed to strike fear into the hearts of your enemies. Not your allies. Denmark’s prime minister says ‘stop the threats’ of U.S. annexing Greenland.
+ In a NYC courtroom, Maduro and his wife plead not guilty. Here’s the latest from BBC and NBC.
