Dem the Torpedoes
The GOP fights to win no matter who gets hurt. Dems fight to lose no matter who could be helped. That was my first reaction to the news that eight Senators had broken rank with Democrats to advance a plan to end the shutdown—less than a week after sweeping elections and while still polling well on the issue. In recent days, the shutdown had become a game of chicken, but instead of the two cars racing toward each other, one of the cars was racing to end SNAP payments for the poorest Americans and to screw up air travel for everyone else. Paradoxically, the willingness (and even gleefulness) with which the GOP moved to harm Americans provided a structural advantage, while the math provided by the 2024 election provided a numerical one. The Dems were winning the shutdown at the polls, but there was little chance that the current GOP would have ceded ground the Dems’ big demand:
extending the health care subsidies that are scheduled to expire. So where does this leave us? Most Democrat’s emotions will fall on a spectrum between expectation fulfilling disappointment and ‘throw the bums out’ fury. But the broader battle lines remain in the place, and will be even more pronounced if/when Americans start seeing their health care premiums go through the roof as the midterms approach. Meanwhile, even as the shutdown ends, the Trump administration is still doing everything it can to keep full SNAP payments frozen. At a moment when Dems just won elections focused on affordability, cutting off health care and starving people don’t strike me as winning issues. There’s no sugar-coating the fact that in the game of chicken, the Dems hit the brakes first. But the GOP could be driving right off a cliff.
+ “From a political perspective, Democrats won the messaging war. Over the 40-plus days of the shutdown, the public continued to blame Trump and the Republicans more than Democrats. More importantly, Democrats made the shutdown about health-care affordability. But that’s not the same as winning.” Dan Pfeiffer (paywall): Democrats lost the battle, but they may win the war. “Ultimately, the Democrats who caved reached two conclusions. First, Republicans were never going to extend the Obamacare tax credits … Second, there was no limit to how many people the Trump administration would hurt during the shutdown.”
+ “The shutdown was a skirmish, not the real battle. Both sides were fighting for position, and Democrats, if you look at the polls, are ending up in a better one than they were when they started. They elevated their best issue — health care — and set the stage for voters to connect higher premiums with Republican rule. It’s not a win, but given how badly shutdowns often go for the opposition party, it’s better than a loss.” Ezra Klein in the NYT (Gift Article): What Were Democrats Thinking?
+ Josh Marshall: A Quick Take on Team Cave’s Big Win. “I have what I suspect is a somewhat counterintuitive take on the deal Senate Democrats’ Team Cave made with the Republican Senate caucus tonight. This is an embarrassing deal, a deal to basically settle for nothing. It’s particularly galling since it comes only days after Democrats crushed Republicans in races across the country. Election Day not only showed that Democrats had paid no price for the shutdown. It also confirmed the already abundant evidence that it has been deeply damaging for Donald Trump. But even with all this, I think the overall situation and outcome is basically fine. Rather than tonight’s events being some terrible disaster, a replay of March, I see it as the glass basically being two-thirds or maybe even three-quarters full.” (A few months ago, many of us would have been satisfied with a little condensation building up on the walls of the glass).
+ WaPo (Gift Article): The health care battle fueling the shutdown roils North Carolina politics. “The health care debate has become a ‘microcosm of the midterm’ in the battleground state as rising premiums hit.”
