King of the Hill of Beans
Maybe the best way to describe the much-anticipated, high-stakes meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea is to borrow a phrase often attributed to the famous economist Yogi Berra: “It’s like deja vu all over again.” Because, after a year of bluster, threats, and market moving social media posts, it sure looks like we’re back where we started; although, now, China is more certain that it can exert its leverage to fend off Trumpian tactics, and even leave Trump thinking (or at least saying) he won. Trump pumped his fist as he boarded Air Force One to depart the meeting and channeled an adjusted for inflation Nigel Tufnel, explaining that, “On the scale from zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12.” The moment reminded me of an old TikTok clip of a boxer who got hit so hard that he thought he won the fight. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that Trump got nothing. It’s just that a lot of what he got, we already had. I’m no bean counter, but even an old Humanties major can do the math on this part of the agreement: “The Chinese promise to buy at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually for next three years will bring their purchases back in line with where they were at before President Donald Trump launched his trade war.” Soy vey…
+ “Mr. Xi also seemed to grasp what Mr. Trump needed, a deal that he could sell as a victory at home. The outcome allowed Mr. Trump to claim a win for American farmers and companies, even though China had largely restored the status quo by agreeing to buy soybeans and to hold off on further restricting the export of rare earths.” NYT (Gift Article): The Art of Letting Trump Claim a Win, While Walking Away Stronger.
+ “The agreement is likely to only stabilize relations between the two countries rather than resolve fundamental differences, with both sides buying time to further reduce dependence on each other in strategic areas.” Bloomberg (Gift Article): Trump-Xi Truce Buys Time in Broader Fight for Dominance and Leverage. (The 2025 news cycle might make it the first year in human history where having more time seems like a negative.)
+ Defcon Don: The meeting and its aftermath were somewhat overshadowed by a Trump social media post (that was riddled with misinformation) in which he stated that he has instructed the Pentagon to re-start nuclear testing. Tom Nichols in The Atlantic: Trump Is Very Confused About Nuclear Weapons. “Resuming nuclear testing is a terrible idea, not only because it would undermine America’s long-standing commitment to restraining a global arms race, but because detonating warheads to see if they actually work hasn’t been necessary in a very long time.” Was Trump trying to distract from his Xi meeting? Was he reacting to Putin’s claim to have tested a long range weapon? Was he just riffing? Whatever the motivation, the world’s most dangerous person is posting orders about the world’s most dangerous weapons in an era when there’s been zero indication that anyone in his administration or party plans to stand up to him about anything. It’s like a mushroom cloud on mushrooms.
