Peace Through All-Caps
Before Trump’s first term, people used to nervously joke that world affairs and even wars would be managed via Tweets. That disquieting prediction proved far-fetched as we now know these matters are managed via Truth Social posts. The weirdness of the Trump posts never seems to be fully reflected in the news coverage. Here’s just a little sample: “Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’ I knew the time was NOW. The World, and the Middle East, are the real WINNERS. Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures. They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH.” That post led to a headline that should probably be put in the 2025 time capsule: Trump hails ‘love, peace’ in Middle East as Iran missiles send Israelis to shelters. (What’s so funny about peace, love, and misunderstanding?) We’re not the only ones being led into the future by the odd ramblings of Trump’s social media posts. NYT (Gift Article): Trump’s Cease-Fire Announcement Catches His Own Top Officials by Surprise. But ultimately (regardless of way things are always covered around these parts), America is not the main character in this story. This is a regional story, one that has altered the playing field in the Middle East in ways that no one would have predicted. Post October 7, Israel has dramatically damaged Iran’s proxies, its military might, much of its nuclear program, and its reputation as a regional terror agent and power. What will happen from this point is impossible to predict. One hopes it’s time to stop the bombing in Gaza and to work with the Iranian people to achieve a more free democracy. But we could just as easily see the tenuous ceasefire break, a weakened Iranian government turn its ire inward and create even harsher conditions inside the country, or realize the regime is using the lessons of the last few days as evidence that it needs to move more aggressively than ever to achieve a nuclear weapon. LET’S HOPE FOR THE BEST.
+ “After Israel decimated Iran’s air defenses in a missile skirmish and crippled its main ally, Hezbollah, in October, Netanyahu issued a general order to prepare for a strike, the current and former officials said. Israeli intelligence officials began huddling to compile lists of dozens of Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders who could be targeted for assassination. Israel’s air force began to systematically take out air defenses in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to clear the skies for future bombing runs against Iran.” WaPo (Gift Article): Netanyahu decided on Iran war last year, then sought to recruit Trump.
+ Josh Marshall: Tweet Storms and Bunker Busters—War in a Time of Trump.
+ We can’t really analyze the US decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities without going back to the moment in 2018 when “President Trump tore up the agreement and replaced it with … nothing.” Antony Blinken in the NYT (Gift Article): Trump’s Iran Strike Was a Mistake. I Hope It Succeeds. “I wish that he had played out the diplomatic hand we left him. Now that the military die has been cast, I can only hope that we inflicted maximum damage — damage that gives the president the leverage he needs to finally deliver the deal he has so far failed to achieve.”
+ The New Yorker: Can Ayatollah Khamenei, and Iran’s Theocracy, Survive This War?
+ “In the 48 hours since the strikes, Trump’s top advisers have given differing answers about the fate of Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium, which, satellite imagery suggests, Iranian authorities may have relocated prior to the strikes. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, have given no indication that they are ready to surrender the nuclear program. Facing the likelihood of ongoing U.S. and Israeli attacks, they may be more likely to make the long-feared decision to try to race toward a bomb.” The Atlantic (Gift Article): The True Impact of Trump’s Strike on Iran.
+ Where was Russia? That’s a question Iran’s leaders are probably asking, too. The fighting between Iran and Israel raises questions about Russia’s influence in the Middle East.
+ “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f**k they’re doing.” So said the President about early violations of the ceasefire. As of this moment, it’s holding. Here’s the latest from CNN, NBC, BBC, and Times of Israel.
