Going Nuclear
The last couple years have brought a series of unfortunate events to Iran’s power in the Middle East and beyond. Hamas has been eroded, Hezbollah has been decimated, the Assad government has been overthrown, and highly targeted attacks by Israel within Iran’s borders have been effective. This weakening of Iran’s power, reputation, and ability to deter attacks may have led both Iran and Israel to this moment. With its proxies damaged, Iran accelerated its move toward a proven deterrent (a nuclear arsenal), and pressed by this new urgency and Iran’s current weakness, Israel chose now to attack Iran’s increasingly threatening nuclear program. Like everything related to the Middle East, this is a gross oversimplification, but it’s an attempt to at least answer the question: Why now? Of course, the timing also has to do with who’s in charge of Israel’s top global ally. It will probably take a long time to unravel all the inner workings of Israel’s attack and America’s involvement (or lack thereof). Meanwhile, there are more immediate questions. How long will this go on? How will Iran respond (and how much of their ability to do so has been hindered)? And can global leaders stop this already shocking escalation from spiraling into a massive regional war? Graeme Wood in The Atlantic (Gift Article): Why Israel Struck Now: As Iran’s deterrence eroded, the risks of conflict climbed.
+ “Salami, who was 65, was known for taking a hardline stance against Iran’s rivals, including Israel and the US. Just last month, he had warned that Tehran would ‘open the gates of hell’ if attacked by either country.” Hossein Salami, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards chief, killed by Israel.
+ “On Friday morning, President Trump, in a social-media post, wrote, ‘I gave Iran a chance to make a deal’ but ‘they just couldn’t get it done.’ He said the Israeli strikes were carried out because of Tehran’s intransigence and urged the Iranians to reach a deal ‘before there is nothing left.'” It’s unclear at this point whether the US gave the greenlight or if Trump is just playing catch-up and trying to distract from his lack of influence in the conflicts he promised to solve. Whether as part of a unified strategy or something else, it’s clear that “U.S. negotiations with Iran aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program were widely seen as an important way to preserve regional peace. They ended up being the perfect cover for a surprise Israeli attack.” WSJ (Gift Article): In Twist, U.S. Diplomacy Served as Cover for Israeli Surprise Attack.
+ “Israel’s assault was years in the making, the result of extensive intelligence gathering on Iran’s nuclear sites as well as on top military officials and scientists, according to three Israeli officials with knowledge of the operations.” Many top officials in the military and in Iran’s nuclear program were killed. The attacks on nuclear and other sites continue. The US is positioning warships to help Israel defend against Iranian attacks. More than 100 missiles have already been fired from Iran and some have already been intercepted over Jerusalem. Plumes of smoke have been seen over Tel Aviv. Here’s the latest from the New York Times, BBC, and Times of Israel.
+ (Meanwhile, to put your own weird family dynamics into perspective, consider that Netanyahu’s son is getting married this weekend.)
