Error Salon

Christy Powers has “worked through three economic downturns since 1999. Operating out of Frederick, Maryland, a commuter-train ride from Washington, Powers said more and more of her clients—especially the large swath of federal workers—are ‘coming in telling me how stressed they are.’ Others are halting services altogether to save cash. Is Powers a financial planner? A real estate agent? Nope: She’s a massage therapist, and she and her service-industry colleagues working in beauty, hair and personal care have been witnessing firsthand some of the earliest possible signs the US is tumbling into recession.” Bloomberg (Gift Article): The Beauty Salon Recession Indicator.

+ Looks like the beauty salon indicator is pretty accurate. US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back to 1952.

+ “The United States gets vital goods from China that cannot be replaced any time soon or made at home at anything less than prohibitive cost. Reducing such dependence on China may be a reason for action, but fighting the current war before doing so is a recipe for almost certain defeat, at enormous cost.” Foreign Affairs: Beijing Has Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Tariff Fight.

+ So has the impact on consumer sentiment and retirement accounts shaken Trump’s support? Among the swing voters, probably. Among the true believers, hell no. WSJ (Gift Article): Trust Unshaken: Trump Voters Are Sticking With Their Guy. “When Trump at last announced the tariffs—levied on friends and enemies—many of them saw the move less in economic terms than as a moment of redemption: The country had gone astray, and something had to be done. Even something radical.”