Now Days
Peace in the Middle East is more often a when hell freezes over punchline to a bad joke than a reality on the ground. And today’s ceasefire announcement hardly promises long term peace or any obvious solution to what will happen next in Gaza. But after 15 months of hostage holding and the brutal war that ensued, it’s remarkably good news that a ceasefire deal has been made and that the hostages will be released. By most accounts, the deal is the same Biden-brokered agreement that’s been on the table for months. So why now? On the Hamas side, they’ve been severely damaged including the killing of much of the organization’s leadership while the group’s chief sponsor, Iran, has been hurt militarily and politically in the region, and the so-called Axis of Resistance has been dramatically weakened (note Hezbollah in Lebanon and Assad’s fall in Syria). For Netanyahu, the timing is likely related to the desire to please the incoming (and, one assumes, very friendly to Bibi) administration, internal pressure to get the hostages home, and an increasing number of IDF reserves refusing to return to Gaza. Foreign Policy: One Question Looming Over Israel-Hamas Truce Deal—Why Now? Considering all the deals that have fallen through, now can’t come soon enough.
+ As the hostages return (and share their stories) and the fighting stops, we’ll be faced with a more complicated question: What next? Here’s the latest from BBC, CNN, and Times of Israel.
+ A good overview from Ilan Goldenberg: A Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal.
+ AP: Trump and Biden both claim credit for ceasefire deal. When asked by a reporter, “Who deserves credit for this deal, you or Trump?” Biden responded, “Is that a joke?” (We’re all gonna be asking ourselves that question a lot over the next few years…)
+ And the latest on the deal from the NYT (Gift Article): “When President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Saturday to pressure him on a cease-fire deal in Gaza, there was someone on the speakerphone: Brett H. McGurk, President Biden’s longtime Mideast negotiator. It was a vivid example of cooperation between two men representing bitter political rivals whose relationship has been best described as poisonous. Rarely if ever have teams of current and new presidents of different parties worked together at such a high-stakes moment, with the fate of American lives and the future of a devastating war hanging in the balance.” (Yes, we’ll end this section on a positive note. Let’s hope we end the week on one. The ceasefire and hostage releases are set to start this weekend.)
