It’s All Greek to Me

“The path to Salvation is as narrow and as difficult to walk as a razor’s edge.” —W. Somerset Maugham

For no particular reason, we’ll begin in ancient Greece where the foundation for Western civilization was laid, and where Plato first heard this famous quote from Socrates: “True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing.” This adage stands in stark contrast to today’s Internet age where everyone knows everything and when one could easily imagine a CNN segment featuring panelists explaining what Socrates actually meant (with, of course, equal time given to both sides). I can honestly say that I’ve never felt more Socratic than I do right now (and it’s not just because I always wear a toga to my polling place). I know nothing. How could Trump have won in 2016? Search me. How could any of his enablers continue to fuel his power grab after the dictator worship, fascist leanings, Jan 6 insurrection, criminal indictments, the Big Lie, the countless little lies, and his continued refusal to express a willingness to respect the vote? What can I say, it’s all Greek to me. Michelle Obama asked the question of an era during one of her rally speeches: “Why on earth is this race even close?” My answer? Picture Socrates doing a shrug emoji. If there’s a prognosticator I relate to, it’s Tom Ellison in McSweeney’s Based on Our Election Forecast, We Are 100 Percent Sure Anything Could F-cking Happen. I don’t get any of it. So when people ask me for my prediction, I give the same answer Clubber Lang gave when asked for a prediction for his upcoming fight against the most famous of all swing-state fictional residents, Rocky Balboa: “Prediction? Pain.” After spending years (yes, folks, it’s been years) reading about this, thinking about this, writing about this, and at times adopting the fetal position and crying about this, I predict this election will hurt. My hammies are tight, my head aches, my stomach is in knots, and I can feel the throbbing of every injury I’ve incurred since elementary school.

For months, we’ve been told this race is incredibly close. So I will offer this one hot take: In a close race, it’s got to count for something that one side is running the worst closing campaign in modern history while the other side is hitting on all cylinders. Just in the past few days, while Kamala has given pitch-perfect, on message, star-studded, and decidedly uncrazy speeches from the Ellipse to the swing states, Trump suggested that he shouldn’t have left the White House after Biden won, mused about reporters being shot, imagined Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad, said he’d protect women “whether they like it or not,” forgotten which state he was in, and simulated microphone fellatio. In short, as Michael Tomasky suggests in TNR, Donald Trump Has Lost His Sh-t. Yes, it’s true that Trump has lost plenty of sh-t over the past decade and it didn’t seem to lose him many votes. But I have my own Socratic-esque quote that I’ve always believed in: Momentum is everything. It’s true in sports. It’s true in life. And it’s true in politics. And as we approach decision day, Kamala Harris has the momentum. She has closed better. Women are voting in huge numbers. Late deciders appear to be leaning Dem. Kamala got a promising poll out of … Iowa. A highly respected pollster shows her ahead of Trump 47% to 44% among likely Iowa voters. At the risk of being accused of being on an Iowasca trip, I’m not predicting a win for Harris in Iowa. But this certainly adds to the momentum case and it builds more confidence than your candidate already laying the groundwork to dispute the election results – again. Will the momentum be enough? Am I being deceived by what I’m seeing in my own bubble? Well, let me briefly step out of my own perspective on what matters in politics and step directly into the world of what matters to Donald Trump. Crowd size. NYT (Gift Article): Trump’s Crowds Are Dwindling as His Campaign Winds Down. You can see it in this CNN report. “For 9 years we talked about the enthusiasm and the masses that have come out for Trump rallies. But interestingly, in this final week we have seen far smaller crowds.” Will this momentum we can see and feel matter? I really think it will. But I probably thought something similar before the 2016 election, too.