After Nasrallah
“First, Iran’s options for retaliation against Israel are very limited, and it can’t bring about much damage there without risking a destruction of Iranian infrastructure that might take decades to rebuild. Second, Iran has been trying for months to ease tensions and pursue talks with other countries in the region and with the West.” Arash Azizi in The Atlantic (Gift Article): Israel Has Called Iran’s Bluff. “Despite the Israeli attack that killed Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah (and the killing of several other top Hezbollah leaders), “Tehran has many reasons to exercise restraint.”
+ “In a statement on Saturday, President Biden said the Israeli assassination of Nasrallah was ‘a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians.’ He emphasized the Hezbollah leader’s ‘fateful decision’ to join hands with Hamas and open a northern front against Israel. The U.S. goal now, he added, is to de-escalate both conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon through the two diplomatic proposals. ‘It is time for these deals to close, for the threats to Israel to be removed, and for the broader Middle East region to gain greater stability.’ The odds of either seem small right now.” The New Yorker: What Israel’s Assassination of Hezbollah’s Leader Means for the Middle East.
+ Robert Worth with an interesting look at some of the views from Beirut in The Atlantic (Gift Article): It’s an Earthquake.
+ “The war that finally claimed Nasrallah is one that he and the movement tragically didn’t want to escape. The fight defined them. Without the mantle of resistance, Hezbollah would lose its rationale for overriding the Lebanese state. Paradoxically, it needed war to survive … Now Nasrallah has joined the long line of Shiite martyrs. He will be mourned by his followers, who will try to avenge him. But his death offers a chance for Lebanese to reclaim their country after nearly 40 years of ruinous Hezbollah leadership.” David Ignatius in WaPo: Hassan Nasrallah chose his own fate.
+ The big question in the region is what happens next. According to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon – it will be a significant factor in changing the security situation and will allow us to complete the important part of the war’s goals: returning the residents to their homes.” Here’s the latest from CNN.
