Fiona Hill knows a thing or two about Putin, and she doesn’t see him backing down. “Whenever he has a setback, Putin figures he can get out of it, that he can turn things around. That’s partly because of his training as a KGB operative … Another hallmark of Putin is that he doubles down.” Hill also sees Putin “trying to get the West to accede to his aims by using messengers like billionaire Elon Musk to propose arrangements that would end the conflict on his terms. ‘Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they’re just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin.'” (Putin probably can’t wait for Musk to own Twitter.)

+ In recent history, few things have proven to be more dangerous to national regimes and elected governments than protests over fuel prices. And thanks in large part to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fuel protests are currently gripping more than 90 countries. (While we focus on the day to day politics of war and peace, it’s important to pull back and remember that many conflicts are about three big things. Oil, Food, Water. And the order of those is going to change in the near future.)