After 2016, you’d have to be an egomaniacal, attention-needy, shortsighted, brain-addled, screen-addicted idiot to make a prediction about a presidential election. So here’s mine. First, this isn’t 2016 when there were two relatively unliked candidates. This year, we have one candidate who is possibly the most despised president in American history running against a guy whose overall approval ratings improved during the course of the campaign. Second, you have an unbelievable turnout, and I can’t believe that all these new voters are lining up at their polling places because they are pumped about how great the last four years have been. Third, you have Covid-19, the key election factor, viciously attacking swing state voters as Trump tries to convince them they’ve turned a corner. I’m not looking at the polls. I’m not doing the math. This is just a guy who has watched the ebb and flow of this story for the last four years. And what I see is a Biden victory, possibly in the 350 electoral vote range, and an election that will be over, whether Trump admits it or not, by the time we reconvene in the morning. I don’t think there will be much GOP Senate support for Trump’s complaints that the election was rigged. I think Trump will move on to the task of protecting his money and ensuring his post-presidency freedom sooner than we think. I do not think there will be a lot of violence at the polls. I don’t think the boarding up of businesses will have been necessary. And I think all the plywood would have been better used to box up the president and send him back to Mar a Lago via the postal service he intentionally slowed down. More narrowly, I think the Senate will be majority Dem, the House will become more majority Dem, I think Georgia will turn blue, and I think Texas will turn blue. And I think Florida will do something memorable, and in one way or another, awful. While the election could go better than expected, I wouldn’t be surprised if the transition period goes worse than expected. I also worry that, even after the election, the media will remain fixated on Trump; a fixation that could last through the transition and even beyond the inauguration of a new president. And finally, aside from Florida being weird and the media focusing on Trump forever, I’m really not that sure about any of this.

+ For a more reasoned, poll-driven account, here’s the last prediction from FiveThirtyEight. And you can make your own prediction using the interactive electoral map at 270 to Win.