“Similar surges occurred for almost every Republican candidate four years ago, including Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich (twice).” Nate Silver on why the featured guest in tonight’s GOP debate has no chance to win: Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom.

+ He may not win, but his rise in the polls might be as informative as it is endlessly entertaining. James Surowiecki on Donald Trump’s sales pitch: Why are so many working class voters supporting a billionaire?

+ And to get ready for the most anticipated debate in years, play a game of who said it: Donald Trump or Frank Reynolds from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia.