No Experience Required

Elaine Rich is emblematic of the times. She has an opinion on everything, including things she knows nothing about. But unlike the rest of us who merely scream these opinions on social media, Rich (along with a few thousand other people) shares her opinions with the intelligence community. And they listen, even though, as she explains, “I’m just a pharmacist. Nobody cares about me, nobody knows my name, I don’t have a professional reputation at stake. And it’s this anonymity which actually gives me freedom to make true forecasts.” So how does a group of people with no access to classified information make accurate predictions about everything from the flow of Syrian refugees to Putin’s plans for the Ukraine? Welcome to the wisdom of the crowd.

Copied to Clipboard