A Tariff Pause, Guile High Club
“Let’s take this outside!” … “OK, good, now let’s go back inside.” The market soaring with relief as the great tariff war between the US and China has been postponed. Yogi Berra might describe the economic news as being like déjà vu all over again, because it sure seems that we’re back where we started. Of course, given the market disruptions and the supply chain concerns, there aren’t a lot of people complaining about the destination—but the instability caused by the journey could have a lasting effect. (If nothing else, whenever I check my portfolio, my face reverts to an expression that looks like it was painted by Edvard Munch.) And what exactly was achieved through the hardball, boomerang effect inducing tactics that left us pretty much right where we started? “While the Trump administration vowed to punish any country that retaliated against its April 2 tariffs, China, which did exactly that, finds itself with slightly lower levies tariffs than it faced April 2. Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer said in a note to clients that the ratcheting down of U.S. tariffs signaled ‘Trump’s biggest climbdown to date.'” Barron’s: Trump Blinked ‘Big Time’ on China Trade, Taking Worst Case Off Table.
+ WSJ (Gift Article): What the U.S.-China Trade Agreement Means for Markets: “But an even better reason for such a big bounce—3.1% on S&P futures and a 3.8% drop in the gold price as I write—is that it looks like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now in control of trade policy. Put simply, the grown-ups are in the room.”
+ “When President Donald Trump launched his trade war on the world, he issued a stern warning: “Do not retaliate and you will be rewarded.” China ignored the warning. It was rewarded anyway. This morning, Trump largely suspended his trade war in return for nothing but promises of ongoing discussions. There is a lesson here for everybody Trump threatens, whether countries or businesses or universities.” The Atlantic (Gift Article): China Called Trump’s Bluff.
+ So what exactly is going on? David Frum has a theory. “If you’ve ever watched a game of three-card monte, you’ve noticed that the dealer talks nonstop. The chatter serves two functions. First, it distracts the victims. Second, and maybe more important, the dealer is deceiving his victims about what’s befalling them … But if the goal is to redistribute the cost of government from the richest to the poorest, while enormously augmenting the president’s personal power to the detriment of Congress, then the Trump plans make a lot more sense.” The Trump Trade-War Scam.
Guile High Club
“In what may be the most valuable gift ever extended to the United States from a foreign government, the Trump administration is preparing to accept a super luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet from the royal family of Qatar — a gift that is to be available for use by President Donald Trump as the new Air Force One until shortly before he leaves office, at which time ownership of the plane will be transferred to the Trump presidential library foundation.” ABC News: Trump administration poised to accept ‘palace in the sky’ as a gift for Trump from Qatar. Chuck Schumer: “Nothing says ‘America First’ like Air Force One, brought to you by Qatar. It’s not just bribery, it’s premium foreign influence with extra legroom.” Trump: “I mean, I could be a stupid person and say, ‘No, we don’t want a free, very expensive airplane,’ … I thought it was a great gesture.” (I sure hope American democracy is equipped with landing gear…)
+ “The Trump Organization has agreed to a new Middle East golf course and real estate deal that involves a Qatari government-owned firm, two weeks before President Trump is set to travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on a state visit.” NYT (Gift Article): New Mideast Project Is Latest Trump Company Deal Tied to a Foreign Government.
+ The crypto coin auction, “which ends Monday, has set off a spectacle that has drawn bipartisan criticism, triggered a suspicious trading pattern, and left a sitting United States president wide open to attempts to corruptly influence him.” NYT (Gift Article): Auction to Dine With Trump Creates Foreign Influence Opportunity.
Hostage Release
“Hamas announced Sunday night it had agreed to free Alexander, 21, after several days of talks with the United States as part of an effort to reach a ceasefire and resume the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.” Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander returns to Israel after Hamas release. The deal seemed to be made between Hamas and the US, with Trump describing the release as a “step taken in good faith toward the United States and the efforts of the mediators – Qatar and Egypt – to put an end to this very brutal war and return ALL living hostages and remains to their loved ones.” The goal of ending the war is definitely different from Netanyahu’s position (airstrikes have already resumed), and from Trump’s earlier suggestion that Gaza be cleared to make way for a real estate development.
+ Trump is headed to the Middle East this week. A meeting with Bibi is not on the agenda. Trump’s Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu watching from the sidelines again.
+ “From embarking on nuclear talks with Iran to attempting hostage talks with Hamas without Israel’s knowledge, Trump has increasingly sidelined Netanyahu, stoking anxieties in a country long accustomed to being consulted by successive U.S. administrations. Last week, Israelis believed they saw more cracks emerge between the ‘America First’ president and Israel, after Trump said he had struck a truce with Yemen’s Houthi rebels that curbed the group’s attacks on U.S. ships — but did not cover Israel. Days later, reports emerged that Trump was considering offering Saudi Arabia access to civil nuclear technology without demanding that the kingdom normalize relations with Israel, a precondition that had been set by former president Joe Biden.” WaPo (Gift Article): Trump repeatedly bypasses Netanyahu, stoking dismay among Israelis. (I bet Bibi wishes he had a luxury airliner lying around.)
The Dance Card is Full
“Fueled by socioeconomic, cultural and technological changes, dance music and club culture have built on the progress of the past to leave a footprint deeper than we’ve seen before. As costs skyrocket for live instrumental acts to hit the road, a touring D.J. needs to travel with only a USB stick full of music. The continued evolution of D.J. hardware and software has softened the learning curve (and entry price) for beginners, while expanding possibilities for seasoned performers. And digital platforms like Boiler Room — the hugely popular video series that pioneered the de facto online D.J. video format — have changed the trajectory of what it means to be an electronic music artist or fan.” All you have to do is attend a massive outdoor music festival to figure out DJs can draw crowds as big as full bands. NYT (Gift Article): Dance Music Is Booming Again. What’s Different This Time? A Lot. Oh what a feeling, dancing has no ceiling….
Extra, Extra
Cutterfly Effect: “More people have been displaced by violence in Sudan than in Ukraine and Gaza combined. Statements about Sudan are regularly made at the UN and in other international forums. And yet the people in these photographs seem to have been abandoned in an empty landscape. As the United States withdraws and international institutions decay, their ordeal may be a harbinger of what is to come.” The decisions made in Washington and debated on social media have real world impacts, often a world away. The Atlantic (Gift Article): The Crisis of American Leadership Reaches an Empty Desert.
+ Human Wealth Optimization: NYT: Elizabeth Holmes’s Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Start-Up. “Mr. Evans’s marketing materials, which lay out hopes to eventually raise more than $50 million, say the ultimate goal is nothing short of ‘human health optimization.'” (It would probably be safe to bet $50 million he’ll find investors that will go for it.)
+ Carte Blanche: Trump naming his former defense attorney as acting Librarian of Congress. “Todd Blanche, who represented Trump in his hush money trial, already holds the number two position at the Justice Department.”
+ Water Fall: Following up on last week’s story about looking up in the sky only to find garbage raining down on you (The Sky is Falling), a Soviet-era space probe crashed back to Earth after more than 50 years in orbit. It landed in water.
+ Paper Pushers: The next series from the team behind The Office has a name and it’s coming out next Fall. Peacock’s ‘Office’ Follow-Up Gets First Look and Title: ‘The Paper.’ (I’m mostly covering this because I have an Office re-run watching problem that borders on the absurd.)
+ Taking the Long Way: A former Royal Marine has reached the summit of Mount Everest after swimming, cycling and running more than 8,000 miles. (He has inspired me to walk my beagles. I was going to take a rest day.)
Bottom of the News
“A few years ago, The Financial Times named Kiss ‘rock’s greatest capitalists.’ By the newspaper’s count, the band founded in 1973 had licensed its name to some 5,000 products, including Kiss Kondoms and Kiss Kaskets.” And for Gene Simmons, the beat goes on. NYT (Gift Article): He Spent $12,495 to Be Gene Simmons’s Roadie (and Got More Than Expected).
+ Think your team’s fans are a bit out of control? Angry Sevilla fans break into training ground after loss.
