Over the weekend, Iran dramatically scaled up its multidecade shadow war against Israel—shifting from attacks through proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah to a direct bombardment from Iran that included an onslaught of more than 300 drones and missiles. This shift, positioned as a retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed top Iranian generals in Damascus, also serves as an overt example of the modern struggle that pits authoritarians who want to undo the world order vs western democracies. Those countries include Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. (Heads up for those on a college campus: the western democracies are the good guys.) It’s notable that Russia uses the same Iranian made drones sent toward Israel, while Iran borrowed the mulitpronged attack tactics used by Russia in Ukraine. The issues are connected to each other and to the current Congressional failure to support US allies. Of course, the big question for Israel, Iran, the US, and the world, is what happens next.

+ “The Israelis had help—from the United States, the U.K, and, remarkably, Jordan, its Arab neighbor, with which relations have sharply deteriorated since the war in Gaza began. Early on Sunday morning, Jordan’s military shot down several drones and cruise missiles that had crossed into its airspace on the way to Israel. Less conspicuously, American radar and tracking systems arrayed across the Middle East, some of them in Arab countries that don’t often advertise their partnership with Israel, helped intercept Iran’s drones and missiles … The biggest question is whether and how Israel will respond. Since 1948, it has been a cardinal rule of Israeli defense policy to avenge every attack, often with greater force. But now such a counterattack poses the imminent threat of sparking a regional war.” Dexter Filkins in The New Yorker: Israel’s Momentous Decision.

+ David Ignatius in WaPo (Gift Article): A stunning victory with the shield creates an opening for Israel. “Israel, for a change, had the world on its side countering the Iranian assault. Britain & France joined the US in shooting down the Iranian volley. Sources said Saudi Arabia, Jordan & other Arab countries quietly joined in the integrated air defense, too … Some Israelis will doubtless want to go harder on the offensive now that Iran’s rocket attack has been routed. But perhaps the show of force will create an opportunity for defusing a conflict that had, until this weekend, seemed damaging and demoralizing for Israel. After Saturday night’s fireworks, that momentum may have shifted.”

+ The attack by Iran was a dangerous escalation and military failure. It also doesn’t seem to make much political sense, coming at a time when Israel was increasingly isolated on the world stage. Richard Haass in Politico: This Seems to Be a Major Strategic Error on the Part of Iran. “The Iranians have lost control of the narrative. And even worse, they’ve introduced a new narrative, which like Oct. 7 casts Israel as the offended party. What Iran has done is throw Bibi Netanyahu the lifeline of lifelines that allows him to change the narrative. Now it’s about Iran — and Iran is an issue that, unlike Gaza, unites Israelis.”

+ David Sanger in the NYT (Gift Article): With Nuclear Deal Dead, Containing Iran Grows More Fraught. “The U.S., Europe, Russia and China worked together on a 2015 deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program … A lot has changed in the subsequent nine years. China and Russia are now more aligned with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” to an American-led order, along with the likes of North Korea. When President Biden gathered the leaders of six nations for a video call from the White House on Sunday to plot a common strategy for de-escalating the crisis between Israel and Iran, there was no chance of getting anyone from Beijing or Moscow on the screen. The disappearance of that unified front is one of the many factors that make this moment seem ‘particularly dangerous.'”

+ An important reminder from Arash Azizi that, especially in today’s world, borders don’t define political positions. Ordinary Iranians Don’t Want a War With Israel. “You don’t need to be an expert on Iran to know some facts about Iranians in this moment: First, most are sick of the Islamic Republic and its octogenarian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei … Second, the people of Iran have no desire to experience a war with Israel. Despite decades of indoctrination in anti-Israel and anti-Semitic sentiment by their government, Iranians harbor very little hostility toward Israel … Third, Iranians have a recent memory of how terrible war can be.”

+ Even as Joe Biden took to the situation room while American forces were working to defend Israeli airspace, Donald Trump went full blown malignant narcissist at a rally and on his social network. “It would not have happened if we were in office.” In the worst of times you can count on the worst person to behave the worst.