Fred Kaplan in Slate: “The main question isn’t whether ISIS will lose. Rather, it’s who will win. Many factions are involved in this assault: the Iraqi army and police, the Kurdish peshmerga, Sunni militias, Iranian-backed Shiite militias, the Turkish army … and the United States in the form of special forces, airstrikes, and intelligence operations. Most combat coalitions share at least basic strategic interests; that is not the case with this motley crew.”

+ Another factor to consider: If ISIS falls in Mosul, the EU “should prepare for returning jihadists.”

+ WaPo: Four maps that explain the chaos of the Middle East.